Get Paid Off on Big Hands – The Value Bet Concept

An important part of growing your poker bankroll and playing poker in general is to minimize your losses with marginal hands and maximize your winnings with strong hands. That’s a core concept of poker strategy.  If you are holding a very strong hand, naturally you want to get paid off. But it’s not always that easy. There is a lot of psychology, creativity and as you will see, math involved.

As an example you might have a loose image and therefore your opponents might think that you’re bluffing a lot. When that is the case, it’s very easy to bet with a strong hand and get paid off. If your image is tight and your opponents respect your bets, it’s a lot tougher. A strong bet by you in this instance will look like a strong hand. That can come in handy when bluffing, but not for getting paid off..

Value Betting Example

You raised with AT before the flop, two players call and the flop comes out: QK2. You make a continuation bet and only one player calls. The turn is a 7 and both of you check. The river is a J,  giving you the nuts. Now you have to decide how to make the most money from your bet.

A check with the intention to make a raise after your opponent bets isn’t a good idea in most cases. Your opponent will check behind you very often and you won’t win a single. That’s why a simple value bet is the best option in most cases.

The likelihood that a bet of a certain amount gets called plays a big role when deciding how much to bet.

Let’s assume there is $1,000 in the pot and you bet $10 – almost every opponent will call this bet if  only to see your cards. But if you bet $1,000 not everybody will call – only those opponents with a very good hand, which will be a small percentage of the time. So what if the bet of $1,000 will get called 1 % of the time. Then its expected value is the same as the $10 bet because: 1.00 x $10 = $10 and 0.01 x $1,000 = $10.

This principle determines what amount you should bet. For instance if you think that the likelihood that a $800 bet will get called is 40% and the likelihood that a $500 bet will get called is 50%, then the $800 bet is better, because: 0.4 x $800 = $320 and 0.5 x $500 = $250. The expected value of the $320 is higher and thus the better bet.

Related posts:

1. Playing Small Ball Poker
2. Value betting the river
3. Understanding the Gap Concept
4. No Limit Hold ‘Em Starting Hands
5. A Few Advanced Poker Plays